The 10 year treasury rate pushed higher to 3.544% yesterday.  We have still yet to see the 10 year get all the way to the 50 day moving average but the intense sell off from 4% might prove to be the reason for an early bounce.  With that in mind the 10 year has moved higher the last two days which has brought the 50 dma up to 3.44%.  It will be interesting to see how average mortgage rates react if the 10 year starts a strong uptrend as I think it will.  The equation used for the correlation between mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury rate is y = 2.7283(x)^2 + .5881(x) +.0308.

10 Year Treasury Rate - 3.544%
The correlation shows that the 30 year fixed rate should be approximately 5.50%.  Actual rates…

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage - 5.37%