Archive for July, 2009

The 10 year treasury rate saw a slight decline on Friday but nothing significant.? It will be very interesting to see if the push towards 4% continues this week.? I still cannot believe that mortgage rates remain so low yet the 10 year yield continues to push much higher.? It might be the case that average mortgage rates move drastically in one week similar to the way they did in late May but we will just have to wait and see what happens.

The equation used for the correlation between mortgage rates and the 10 year treasury rate is

y = 2.7283(x)^2 + .5881(x) +.0308.

10 Year Treasury Rate ? 3.67%
The correlation shows that the 30 year fixed rate should be approximately 5.61%.? Actual rates?

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage ? 5.28%

Please use Subprime Blogger to get your weekly mortgage rate predictions.? The new mortgage rate predictions articles are posted every Monday, Wednesday and Friday so please check back in.

Mortgage rate predictions are going to be very tough this week as the 10 year treasury rate yield has moved higher while 30 year mortgage rates have not moved significantly.? This is quite interesting as the last time this happened we saw average mortgage rates move drastically over a one week period.? Is this week going to be the same?? I personally think that the buying up of US debt by the Federal Reserve Bank has made rates artificially low but that is going to eventually change.

With this knowledge, this weeks mortgage rate prediction

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage ? 5.42%

Yes, this is exactly what I predicted last week, but lets go with it again as I truly believe mortgage rates are going to move up and catch up to the 10 year yield.? If that does not happen, it is VERY likely we will hear some big news from Ben Bernanke about future monetary moves by the Federal Reserve Bank.

Please get your mortgage rates forecast at Subprime Blogger.? Return every Monday, Wednesday and Friday as that is when the forecast is updated.

The current mortgage rates forecast continues to be cloudy as interest rates have yet to follow the lead of the 10 year treasury rate yield.? Last week I mentioned that the 10 year yield has moved from 3.3% all the way up to 3.7%.? You would think with a drastic move like this, 30 year fixed mortgage rates would follow.? That has not been the case as mortgage rates have generally moved sideways during the strong push higher by the yield.? That is likely to change, but who knows when?

The last time we saw action like this, there was a huge push higher.? Can we expect the same thing?? Once again, no one knows that answer but 30 year mortgage rates and the 10 year yield will come back together at some point.? Seeing that the 10 year yield has been in a strong uptrend since the beginning of 2009, my bet would be on average mortgage rates moving higher.? As of now, it looks as if mortgage rates should be somewhere around 5.6% yet they are being reported at 5.25%.? It will be very interesting to see when they react and how fierce that reaction is.

If you have been considering refinancing or getting that first mortgage, now would be as good as a time as ever to do it.? If you wait a few months or even weeks, you could see daily mortgage rates above 6%.

Please use Subprime Blogger to get your mortgage rate trends; all trends articles are updated Monday, Wednesday and Friday.? There are also several articles to help you get a home loan modification.

The current mortgage rate trends are showing that mortgage rates are likely to move higher in the next few weeks.? The 10 year treasury rate yield continues to move higher; a move in the last two weeks from 3.3% to 3.7%.? There was a slight pullback Friday but nothing that would be considered a trend breaker.? The alarming issue at hand is the fact that the yield has moved much higher yet average mortgage rates have yet to blink.? We have seen a slight move higher, but nothing as we should expect.

Armed with the knowledge that the 10 year treasury rate is in a strong uptrend, we should expect mortgage rates to follow suit.? The last time there was a major disconnect in mortgage rates and the 10 year yield, we saw a huge one week jump in average mortgage rates.? There was actually one day in which rates moved as much as .75%.? It will be very scary if that happens to be the case again.? If we see a push up that much, average mortgage rates would be above 6%.? That would definitely be headline news.

I do not think this will be the case until we see another push closer to 4% from the 10 year yield.? If the yield pushes higher and mortgage rates do not, we can expect another one of those days and we will see headlines all over CNBC about how mortgage rates skyrocketed.? I will gladly say, I saw it coming.?